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period well before the fiscal cliff concerns became center stage. i think those economic detier a's, components probably lead to reduced employment, and reduced consumers spending starting in the first quarter. this is an economic deterioration, probably amplified by the policy concerns, but nonetheless that has occurred, and is forcing our earnings numbers lower. we're now at 10 as a good example. >> you've managed to make adam parker look like a bull. you're looking for 1390 in the s&p for next year. he had 1167, but he's looking to 1434. >> so far, i think there are a number of folks that have yet to come out, but unfortunately we have to live with that status for a while. quite frankly investors are not being paid a ton. we start to rebound -- we'll have to get more optimistic. >>> good to talk with you as always. >> thanks for having me. >> see you soon. >>> what's going on with this rally? up 125 on the dow. so the kind of stocks that are moving today? >> i think it's really important to keep in mind so much of this year, when they write the t
period well before the fiscal cliff concerns became center stage. i think those economic detier a's, components probably lead to reduced employment, and reduced consumers spending starting in the first quarter. this is an economic deterioration, probably amplified by the policy concerns, but nonetheless that has occurred, and is forcing our earnings numbers lower. we're now at 10 as a good example. >> you've managed to make adam parker look like a bull. you're looking for 1390 in the...
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. >> regardless of what happenes with the fiscal cliff -- here we go, long-term problems won't go along. the aging population with huge social security end spending. bill is with the competitive institute. your typical calm not controversial headline at all bill, but we appreciate you joining us. the headline is very attention-grabbing. i like some of your points. but people will push back and say, what the answer? telling grand ma, no, i'm sorry, you can't have medical care? >> look at the data, brian wp pe have two trends on a collision course and it is a slow motion train wreck. this is the tendency for young people to not get married, not form families and not have babies. the numbers are quite startseling. that collides with entitlement democracy where we promised the elderly all these benefits. look at singapore, china be a hong kong. they are trending down to one live birth per woman. every generation, the population haves. even the black plague didn't do that big a job. >> except in asia one of the good things is they still have very much a system where we look after the elderly
. >> regardless of what happenes with the fiscal cliff -- here we go, long-term problems won't go along. the aging population with huge social security end spending. bill is with the competitive institute. your typical calm not controversial headline at all bill, but we appreciate you joining us. the headline is very attention-grabbing. i like some of your points. but people will push back and say, what the answer? telling grand ma, no, i'm sorry, you can't have medical care? >>...
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cuts as part of a package to avert the fiscal cliff. republicans are on weak ground in this debate. president obama's more popular. the democrats are more popular than the republicans. the president's proposal to raise taxes on people over $250,000 is very popular with the american public. 59% in our poll say they're for it. 76% say it would be an acceptable outcome. the one thing that republicans have going for them in the debate is the public likes the idea of spending cuts. so while the president puts public pressure on republicans, he's trying to respond in kind and say president obama has not detailed the spending cuts he wants. of course, republicans have not detailed the spending cuts either because the place you get real money, melissa, is in the entitlement programs of medicare and social security, and those are very popular. so nobody really wants to lay out too many specifics. republicans have laid out some, saying they would raise the eligibility age for medicare from 65 to 67. saying that they would change the inflation adj
cuts as part of a package to avert the fiscal cliff. republicans are on weak ground in this debate. president obama's more popular. the democrats are more popular than the republicans. the president's proposal to raise taxes on people over $250,000 is very popular with the american public. 59% in our poll say they're for it. 76% say it would be an acceptable outcome. the one thing that republicans have going for them in the debate is the public likes the idea of spending cuts. so while the...
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fiscal cliff debate? woyou far? >> well, bill, we aren't seeing any meaningful spending cuts. the president has offered zero. >> if they could come up with meaningful spending cuts, would you be willing to offset that on the tax increase on the top 2% that the president is demanding. >> bill, let me tell you, if we tax the top 2% 100% of their income it would only fund the government for 91 days. that's not the solution. we've got to stop the spending, and we've got to make some wholesale cuts. i'm in favor of getting rid of the department of education totally. let's get rid of the e.p.a. and the department of energy and the department of commerce and a lot of these -- >> are you considering what the implications on education spending and education budgets will be? are you thinking about students? >> no, absolutely i'm thinking about students. >> really? >> let's find bridges to spend those powers back to the states and the people as the constitution calls it for it to be. let's leave the power in the han
fiscal cliff debate? woyou far? >> well, bill, we aren't seeing any meaningful spending cuts. the president has offered zero. >> if they could come up with meaningful spending cuts, would you be willing to offset that on the tax increase on the top 2% that the president is demanding. >> bill, let me tell you, if we tax the top 2% 100% of their income it would only fund the government for 91 days. that's not the solution. we've got to stop the spending, and we've got to make...
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. >> public care, confidence numbers, spending, any relationship to the fiscal cliff at five. >> i don't know. i just don't know. i think anecdotally, from what i have been able to observe, no. but i can't speak for that. the journal today has the lead stories of consumer spending starting so slow. and in part, they cite the fiscal cliff. i think if you were out there, you would get answers that would not necessarily describe it correctly. >> it's a shame it's called fiscal cliff. and called radical tax increase. it was meant to cause a recession. the government felt in its infinite wisdom that -- >> you think it's a radical tax increase? >> i think so, yeah. i think you'll notice it in your paycheck for certain. >> that's absolutely for sure. >> your first check, second paycheck, then you get the chaos that bowles mentioned. and the chaos is, wow, i have much less to spend. i didn't know this was coming. alternative minimum tax being the silent killer who really understands how much more they have to pay, check at the end of the year. do the math. >> we saw it in the consumer sentiment
. >> public care, confidence numbers, spending, any relationship to the fiscal cliff at five. >> i don't know. i just don't know. i think anecdotally, from what i have been able to observe, no. but i can't speak for that. the journal today has the lead stories of consumer spending starting so slow. and in part, they cite the fiscal cliff. i think if you were out there, you would get answers that would not necessarily describe it correctly. >> it's a shame it's called fiscal...
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larry, we are going to avoid the fiscal cliff resection. the white house is acting with impunity right now. and the white house is so far said look, we want to continue talking about one quarter of the president's own architecture. the president said there was a three to one ratio between savings and cuts and revenue. but they have been silent on this. >> little bit of breaking news. >> wow, the studio is shaking. mr. bhoener is at $800 million. no new information on then ti e ti tiltment. i'm suggesting. it is a game of chicken. neither party can afford this kind of recession. after what we've been through we can't take it. if that meanstending the tax cuts so be it. let me accept your premise. but i have to pile on more. something that is worse is a debt crisis. if you have a white house that is committed from going from $16 trillion in debt which is where the obama administration would lead us. what do you do with that knowledge? what if you come to the view that the president has created in the state of illinois which is a basket case t
larry, we are going to avoid the fiscal cliff resection. the white house is acting with impunity right now. and the white house is so far said look, we want to continue talking about one quarter of the president's own architecture. the president said there was a three to one ratio between savings and cuts and revenue. but they have been silent on this. >> little bit of breaking news. >> wow, the studio is shaking. mr. bhoener is at $800 million. no new information on then ti e ti...
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now these same customers, 15% of our customers are telling us this discussion about fiscal cliff will affect what they spend on christmas. >> and most americans aren't close to finished with holiday shopping yet. giving retailers a hope for a big boost in the last few weeks beforesom christmas. 58% of those surveyed said they completed half or less of their holiday shopping so far. i've got a little guilt on that front. >>> joining us for more, global ceo of sanrio. welcome. waving to the world there. >> yes. >> happy holiday. >> wearing your brand, as well. >> happy holiday from mr. mann. >> we should point out that mr. men is a key part of your strategy which is changing, is it not? >> exactly. last year we started to did mergers. this is our first acquisition, international acquisition. >> which is buying the company that owns -- people may have seen these in book stores -- the little miss sunshine and little -- what's the male equivalent? >> yes. there's little miss series and mr. man series both. >> yeah. >> total over 60 characters. >> why buy that? what are you going do? >> we
now these same customers, 15% of our customers are telling us this discussion about fiscal cliff will affect what they spend on christmas. >> and most americans aren't close to finished with holiday shopping yet. giving retailers a hope for a big boost in the last few weeks beforesom christmas. 58% of those surveyed said they completed half or less of their holiday shopping so far. i've got a little guilt on that front. >>> joining us for more, global ceo of sanrio. welcome....
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that is of high importance in solving the fiscal cliff negotiations and in a longer term way bringing the country to a sustainable fiscal course. what specific changes to medicare or medicaid would you be willing to imbraes today right new that would slow the growth in our medical spenting? >> i'm not going to debate the specifics on television. i think that what the president is doing, is clear that he has indicated that we have to raise the tax rate. the tax rates, bush tax cuts, was temporary in nature. >> that's not what i asked. i asked what specific would you be willing to do to address what is clearly the number one thing that is going to blow the hole in not only the economy but federal spending, federal budget over the next generation. >> what we have to do is negotiate. everything should be on the table. i think the president indicated that everything would be on the table. the president indicated he is ready to talk about entitlements, et cetera. the other side said we can cannot raise tax hikes at all. we have to make sure that everything is on the table. if everything is
that is of high importance in solving the fiscal cliff negotiations and in a longer term way bringing the country to a sustainable fiscal course. what specific changes to medicare or medicaid would you be willing to imbraes today right new that would slow the growth in our medical spenting? >> i'm not going to debate the specifics on television. i think that what the president is doing, is clear that he has indicated that we have to raise the tax rate. the tax rates, bush tax cuts, was...
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economy can go right over the fiscal cliff. and the $600 billion question. will the fed, does the fed have the fiscal fire power to offset tax hikes and spending cuts and keep the economy alive? it is a good question. we do expect the fed to keep interest rates near zero at least near 2015 and also continue to buy agency backed at the pace of $4 billion per month. a big change is the end of so-called operation twist and the potential start of what some are calling qe4. there are some big questions. do we expect some answers in about 5 minutes? let's hope. but we may not have to wait. we've got our own fed insider steve liesman here. he is in washington, where he himself scaled the georgian columns of the fed building. he is here with a preview. steve, what can we expect from the final fed decision of 2012? >> as you know, brian, i run a spdr line from the monument. that's how we get up here. this is really a historic day, and i think the market really hasn't focused on it. the fed's balance sheet is really about to explode. you just gave the numbers. i want
economy can go right over the fiscal cliff. and the $600 billion question. will the fed, does the fed have the fiscal fire power to offset tax hikes and spending cuts and keep the economy alive? it is a good question. we do expect the fed to keep interest rates near zero at least near 2015 and also continue to buy agency backed at the pace of $4 billion per month. a big change is the end of so-called operation twist and the potential start of what some are calling qe4. there are some big...
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we are told that $200 a month tax increase on middle class if we go over the fiscal cliff will doom us. well die. whole country will go bankrupt. you understand my facetiousness. but we spend well over $200 a m on things that didn't even exist ten years ago. the smart phones pb apps. cars. why are we spending 200 a m on things that didn't even exist back then. >> you don't feel it the the same way. >> you have to australia to get that for your tax says all can i say. thank you, lauren young. >> thank you. >> and she called it a chastity belt, maybe that's a brand in i don't know. i'm not hip. >> it was back in the medieval times. definite lay brand. >>> speaking of spending, luxury for less is turning into a trend this holiday season. retailers are struggling in flag ship stores but are cleaning up in outlets, right, courtney? you've been tracking this trend and you are in an outlet in new jersey as well? >> that's right, i am, mandy. it seems the consumers are finding value in the off price luxury. especially outlet centers like this one here and it is surprising a number of analyst a
we are told that $200 a month tax increase on middle class if we go over the fiscal cliff will doom us. well die. whole country will go bankrupt. you understand my facetiousness. but we spend well over $200 a m on things that didn't even exist ten years ago. the smart phones pb apps. cars. why are we spending 200 a m on things that didn't even exist back then. >> you don't feel it the the same way. >> you have to australia to get that for your tax says all can i say. thank you,...
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. >> fiscal cliff, of course, is a complete madeup deadline. >> discretionary spending is 1 trillion, 280 billion. we're 18 billion short of having nothing for the entire government. >> what do you think the best possible outcome could be? >> something like simpson-bowles, and work off that. >> when a deal is announced, if the left and the right aren't angry, there's not a real deal. >> we're back on "squawk." and we've got an update on a very interesting/crazy story. john mcafee, holed up in a miami hotel after his deportation from guatemala. we've been bringing you different aspects of this throughout the past couple of weeks. the anti-virus software founder has been evading authorities in belize who want to question him in connection with the death of a neighbor who was shot, if you remember. mcafee said he did not kill the neighbor. fear for his life if he turned himself in to authorities in belize, he was tweeting and blogging about all this as it was going on. mcafee announced on his website last evening that he arrived in miami's south beach neighborhood. american airlines said
. >> fiscal cliff, of course, is a complete madeup deadline. >> discretionary spending is 1 trillion, 280 billion. we're 18 billion short of having nothing for the entire government. >> what do you think the best possible outcome could be? >> something like simpson-bowles, and work off that. >> when a deal is announced, if the left and the right aren't angry, there's not a real deal. >> we're back on "squawk." and we've got an update on a very...
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fiscal cliff, that means awe sisterity. speaker of the house, john boehner said we're still negotiating. he specifically said where is the president on spending cuts, basically threw it back in their court. came off the highs. terms of sectors moving, nice move up in a bunch of groups. semiconductors back, texas instruments had comments, drug index doing well. merck and most of those other big names. sanofi up. delta acquiring a 49% stake in virgin atlantic from singapore, consolidation going on. booking trends have been strong or airlines as well. defense look at this, dfx, historic high. what sequestration worries out there. bottom line, everything on the upside. one sector i want to point out, dollar stores. dollar general came out with an outlook a little below estimates, look, down 7%. all the other ones a downside. they cited tough comps coming up and there are. a challenging environment and a challenging competitive environment. even the dollars stores in a tough competitive environment. >> dollar stores say their ma
fiscal cliff, that means awe sisterity. speaker of the house, john boehner said we're still negotiating. he specifically said where is the president on spending cuts, basically threw it back in their court. came off the highs. terms of sectors moving, nice move up in a bunch of groups. semiconductors back, texas instruments had comments, drug index doing well. merck and most of those other big names. sanofi up. delta acquiring a 49% stake in virgin atlantic from singapore, consolidation going...
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cuts that would come at the end of the year if we go over the fiscal cliff. the white house saying they don't expect we will. they still hope it can be prevented, but they have to start planning. also, speaker of the house john boehner meeting with small business leaders on capitol hill where he reiterated some of his key points. again, just within the past hour. take a listen. >> business owners with us today are here to highlight president obama's demand to raise tax rates instead of cutting spending. his plan will hurt nearly 1 million small businesses around our country. that will affect hundreds of thousands of jobs. >> reporter: and guys, there are republicans here on capitol hill who are urging the speaker to cut a deal with the president. i talked to one of the earliest republicans to say, you know what, let's take a the president up on his offer to extend the bush tax cuts for everybody under $250,000 and at least take that uncertainty off the table and then continue to negotiate the rest to have later. some of the republicans are now coalessing arou
cuts that would come at the end of the year if we go over the fiscal cliff. the white house saying they don't expect we will. they still hope it can be prevented, but they have to start planning. also, speaker of the house john boehner meeting with small business leaders on capitol hill where he reiterated some of his key points. again, just within the past hour. take a listen. >> business owners with us today are here to highlight president obama's demand to raise tax rates instead of...
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jim, a reasonable proposal for the fiscal cliff? modest proposal. i've read things like that before. >> i'm talking about the -- look, did i mention once the tax increase? >> no. >> i'm going for quick spending cuts. because we just -- we agreed to give the rich people that deal two years ago, we added a trillion and then another trillion. i don't know why a republican ever agreed to that. i'm trying to figure out -- >> it wasn't -- >> who the heck -- >> wasn't because of the 2%. >> because it kept -- >> it kept the deal from happening. >> by given the -- added 2 trillion to the deficit. i hated that. try to find out how to cut that deficit now. not the future. >> we've got a lot more 20 come this morning. >> thanks, guys. crazy conversation. we'll see where it goes. comments, questions about anything you see on "squawk," tweet us @squawkcnbc. coming up, holiday central. the ceo of phillips v-van heuse. >> who? phillips-van heusen joining us on the set. he's dressed head to toe in calvin klein and he's here with one of his company's largest sharehol
jim, a reasonable proposal for the fiscal cliff? modest proposal. i've read things like that before. >> i'm talking about the -- look, did i mention once the tax increase? >> no. >> i'm going for quick spending cuts. because we just -- we agreed to give the rich people that deal two years ago, we added a trillion and then another trillion. i don't know why a republican ever agreed to that. i'm trying to figure out -- >> it wasn't -- >> who the heck -- >>...
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especially as the fiscal cliff gets closer. jane wells is talking to shoppers in canoga park, california for us. hi, jane. >> hey, sue. it is ugly sweater day. this one lights up. by the way, folks want you to know i did not buy this here. they would never sell such a monstrosity. but does it make you want to jump off the fiscal cliff? do consumers even know what the fiscal cliff is? wul mart says before the election about 25% of its core customers did. now 75% do. is it making any impact? >> 50% of our core customers are saying that all of this debate and discussion will effect their christmas spending this year. >> now nearly everyone we spoke to knows about the fiscal cliff but not everyone thinks about it. >> are you concerned about the fiscal cliff? >> absolutely. absolutely. >> no, i'm not, actually. i think they will fix fiscal cliff and i'm a positive person. >> i don't know how much it really impacts us but it impact the economy so i think we have had a really stressful year with business and health, so we haven't put
especially as the fiscal cliff gets closer. jane wells is talking to shoppers in canoga park, california for us. hi, jane. >> hey, sue. it is ugly sweater day. this one lights up. by the way, folks want you to know i did not buy this here. they would never sell such a monstrosity. but does it make you want to jump off the fiscal cliff? do consumers even know what the fiscal cliff is? wul mart says before the election about 25% of its core customers did. now 75% do. is it making any...
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to the republicans to come up with the spending cut proposal, not the democrats. do you agree with that? i mean, shouldn't both sides be sitting down and putting their cards on the table? we only have a few days left before the deadline here, sir. >> i'm having trouble hearing you and i got the gist of it. here's what i would point out. i have speaker boehner's letter a to the president in my hand where they call for $900 billion in cuts but don't specify how they are going to get the cuts. the president, on the other hand, if you look at his budget, it's on the internet, he spells out in great detail how he's going to get the $600 billion cuts. another very important fact to know is that the republican ryan budget, the one that passed the house last year and senate republicans supported, that budget has less medicare savings over the next ten years than the president's budget has medicare savings. they just don't like the way the president achieved his medicare savings. >> how would you achieve the medicare savings? for example, are you ready to say that you woul
to the republicans to come up with the spending cut proposal, not the democrats. do you agree with that? i mean, shouldn't both sides be sitting down and putting their cards on the table? we only have a few days left before the deadline here, sir. >> i'm having trouble hearing you and i got the gist of it. here's what i would point out. i have speaker boehner's letter a to the president in my hand where they call for $900 billion in cuts but don't specify how they are going to get the...
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to reach a deal on the fiscal cliff. but use that debate as an economic one, says our next guest. chairman of the council of economic advisers under george w. bush and adviser to presidential candidate mitt romney. he's in new york city this morning. glenn, great to see you. >> good morning. likewise. >> what exactly does that mean? because of the context of higher taxes, and spending cuts, you would think there would be an economic impact. how can it not involve economics? >> well, there's certainly an economic impact. my point was just that the real issue for us is that our budget rules were designed for a different set of problems. you know, historically, movements in debt were about war and peace. you borrowed money to fight a war, you paid it off in peace time. now we're talking about the rise of the entitlement states. social security and medicare. we need different budget rules. this isn't just about a fiscal cliff. >> the demographics don't exactly help the problem either. we're in a time when the population is g
to reach a deal on the fiscal cliff. but use that debate as an economic one, says our next guest. chairman of the council of economic advisers under george w. bush and adviser to presidential candidate mitt romney. he's in new york city this morning. glenn, great to see you. >> good morning. likewise. >> what exactly does that mean? because of the context of higher taxes, and spending cuts, you would think there would be an economic impact. how can it not involve economics? >>...
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the next thing after fiscal cliff is potential for government shutdown. we're almost over the fiscal cliff and looking at government shutdown. there's no end on short term but long term. >> except for a the rise above stuff you said, marc, you want to marry me? you're absolutely right. i don't like government to do things, everybody getting along, you're so right. there's this huge perception somehow government has always gotten along in america until now. isn't it crazy? it's such a small voice, so few people who think that way. >> exactly. it's a rosy eye'd view at the past. the founding fathers never got along and competed with each other bitterly. >> did you think you would get a marriage proposal on tv this morning? sn>> i will have to consult wit my current wife. >> let meask you something else in the headlines, this news apple may be getting closer to producing an apple tv. your take? does it really happen? >> nobody knows because apple is locked down like a vaulted in the valley. i don't know anything. the assumption of the valley is they will do
the next thing after fiscal cliff is potential for government shutdown. we're almost over the fiscal cliff and looking at government shutdown. there's no end on short term but long term. >> except for a the rise above stuff you said, marc, you want to marry me? you're absolutely right. i don't like government to do things, everybody getting along, you're so right. there's this huge perception somehow government has always gotten along in america until now. isn't it crazy? it's such a...
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the fiscal cliff hits. the arguments i just pa about the withholding tables and cutting spending, are not generally talked about. a lot of people deny they can be done. we're confident they can. so the question then becomes what's the impact, where is the impact. and the impact is equity markets end of next week will say these guys aren't going to get it done, we won't have a deal january 1, everything falls apart, that's assuming of course we all get past december 21st. >> so basically week and counting before you think the equity market really drops significantly? >> if we do get a deal done do, we just maintain the 2% that we're stuck in with the high unemployment and not go down? or does it actually allow us to start growing again? is anybody talking growth? >> we're talking growth. >> is it possible to ever get back to that in this environment? >> it is. you have a lot of problems with the piece. >> do you briyou believe if you rote deficit -- two different ways. you either keep the government that you
the fiscal cliff hits. the arguments i just pa about the withholding tables and cutting spending, are not generally talked about. a lot of people deny they can be done. we're confident they can. so the question then becomes what's the impact, where is the impact. and the impact is equity markets end of next week will say these guys aren't going to get it done, we won't have a deal january 1, everything falls apart, that's assuming of course we all get past december 21st. >> so basically...
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i'm thinking, after listening this morning, how i learned to stop worrying and love the fiscal cliff. is that where we are right now? >> you know, jim, this shouldn't be that hard. the idea that we've got to get a $4 trillio over ten years, with a mix of revenue increases, spending cuts. you know, when you look at the size of our economy, when you're looking at what's asked of people all across europe, uk, all in emerging nations, this is so small on a relative basis, that it's almost unamerican we're not going to be able to step up and get it done. you know, i'm optimistic that we're going to be able to avoid the fiscal cliff. we're not going to go over that, we're not going to see sequester, the challenge is going to be, is the deal going to be big enough, comprehensive enough that we take that minimum of $4 trillion off this $16 trillion debt over the next ten years. >> we're going to intervene, no matter what, in the trends of american business, meaning as soon as this one is over, we'll have a debt ceiling. because we can't get investment going in this country. that's why people
i'm thinking, after listening this morning, how i learned to stop worrying and love the fiscal cliff. is that where we are right now? >> you know, jim, this shouldn't be that hard. the idea that we've got to get a $4 trillio over ten years, with a mix of revenue increases, spending cuts. you know, when you look at the size of our economy, when you're looking at what's asked of people all across europe, uk, all in emerging nations, this is so small on a relative basis, that it's almost...